Computer models for predicting conflict outcomes

From Bill Waters came a great heads-up on a paper that informs a model to predict the outcome of conflict. Political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses rational choice theory as the basis of this tool, which I would love to see with a dataset populated with Sri Lanka’s conflict metrics.

Bill also points to a detailed paper entitled Game Theory, Political Economy, and the Evolving Study of War and Peace by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita’s that is well worth a read.

Question is, even if (and this is a big if) war is based on rational choice theory as expounded here by this political scientist, can the same be said of peacebuilding?